BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$68,000

BEARISH

47.8% up

Last update: 11:08 AM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

April 5

$66K

97%

April 6

$68K

26%

April 7

$68K

33%

April 8

$68K

35%

April 9

$68K

37%

April 10

$68K

39%

April 11

$68K

41%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	Apr 5	Apr 6	Apr 7	Apr 8	Apr 9	Apr 10	Apr 11
$78K	+14.7%	1%	—	0% April 6 @ $78K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $110K Liquidity: $50K	—	1% April 8 @ $78K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $19K	—	—	1% April 11 @ $78K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $22K
$76K	+11.8%	1%	0% April 5 @ $76K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $100K Liquidity: $193K	0% April 6 @ $76K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $79K Liquidity: $41K	0% April 7 @ $76K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $21K	1% April 8 @ $76K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $333 Liquidity: $14K	1% April 9 @ $76K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $19K	1% April 10 @ $76K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $25K	1% April 11 @ $76K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $101 Liquidity: $14K
$74K	+8.8%	1%	0% April 5 @ $74K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $202K Liquidity: $195K	0% April 6 @ $74K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $48K Liquidity: $42K	1% April 7 @ $74K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $22K	1% April 8 @ $74K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	3% April 9 @ $74K Bid: 2% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $792 Liquidity: $21K	3% April 10 @ $74K Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $25K	4% April 11 @ $74K Bid: 2% Ask: 6% Spread: 3.7% Volume: $5 Liquidity: $14K
$72K	+5.9%	1%	0% April 5 @ $72K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $399K Liquidity: $128K	0% April 6 @ $72K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $31K Liquidity: $24K	2% April 7 @ $72K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $26K	4% April 8 @ $72K Bid: 4% Ask: 4% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $634 Liquidity: $21K	5% April 9 @ $72K Bid: 4% Ask: 6% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $824 Liquidity: $21K	8% April 10 @ $72K Bid: 7% Ask: 9% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $24K	9% April 11 @ $72K Bid: 7% Ask: 11% Spread: 3.9% Volume: $44 Liquidity: $14K
$70K	+2.9%	1%	0% April 5 @ $70K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $292K Liquidity: $41K	4% April 6 @ $70K Bid: 4% Ask: 4% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $79K Liquidity: $27K	10% April 7 @ $70K Bid: 9% Ask: 10% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $31K Liquidity: $25K	12% April 8 @ $70K Bid: 11% Ask: 13% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $24K	16% April 9 @ $70K Bid: 15% Ask: 16% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $23K	20% April 10 @ $70K Bid: 18% Ask: 21% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $24K	21% April 11 @ $70K Bid: 19% Ask: 22% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $21K
$68K	+0.0%	53%	2% April 5 @ $68K Bid: 2% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $214K Liquidity: $31K	26% April 6 @ $68K Bid: 25% Ask: 26% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $63K Liquidity: $26K	33% April 7 @ $68K Bid: 32% Ask: 33% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $24K	35% April 8 @ $68K Bid: 34% Ask: 36% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $24K	37% April 9 @ $68K Bid: 36% Ask: 38% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $23K	39% April 10 @ $68K Bid: 38% Ask: 40% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $22K	41% April 11 @ $68K Bid: 39% Ask: 42% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $21K
$66K	-2.9%	98%	97% April 5 @ $66K Bid: 97% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $265K Liquidity: $41K	77% April 6 @ $66K Bid: 76% Ask: 77% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $59K Liquidity: $27K	70% April 7 @ $66K Bid: 69% Ask: 71% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $23K	67% April 8 @ $66K Bid: 65% Ask: 68% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $23K	65% April 9 @ $66K Bid: 63% Ask: 66% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $23K	63% April 10 @ $66K Bid: 62% Ask: 64% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $22K	62% April 11 @ $66K Bid: 60% Ask: 63% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $21K
$64K	-5.9%	99%	100% April 5 @ $64K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $283K Liquidity: $46K	96% April 6 @ $64K Bid: 96% Ask: 96% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $77K Liquidity: $36K	91% April 7 @ $64K Bid: 90% Ask: 91% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $29K	88% April 8 @ $64K Bid: 87% Ask: 89% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $23K	84% April 9 @ $64K Bid: 83% Ask: 84% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $23K	82% April 10 @ $64K Bid: 81% Ask: 83% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $24K	82% April 11 @ $64K Bid: 81% Ask: 82% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $22K
$62K	-8.8%	99%	100% April 5 @ $62K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $238K Liquidity: $37K	99% April 6 @ $62K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $45K Liquidity: $33K	97% April 7 @ $62K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $24K Liquidity: $29K	96% April 8 @ $62K Bid: 95% Ask: 97% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $27K	94% April 9 @ $62K Bid: 93% Ask: 95% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $24K	92% April 10 @ $62K Bid: 91% Ask: 93% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $29K	92% April 11 @ $62K Bid: 91% Ask: 93% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $21K
$60K	-11.8%	99%	100% April 5 @ $60K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $497K Liquidity: $216K	100% April 6 @ $60K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $76K Liquidity: $24K	99% April 7 @ $60K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $25K Liquidity: $21K	97% April 8 @ $60K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $35K Liquidity: $25K	98% April 9 @ $60K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $29K	97% April 10 @ $60K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $28K	96% April 11 @ $60K Bid: 96% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $22K
$58K	-14.7%	99%	100% April 5 @ $58K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $219K Liquidity: $176K	100% April 6 @ $58K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $85K Liquidity: $29K	100% April 7 @ $58K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $21K	99% April 8 @ $58K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $21K	98% April 9 @ $58K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $21K	99% April 10 @ $58K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $19K	98% April 11 @ $58K Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $20K
$56K	-17.6%	99%	100% April 5 @ $56K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $172K Liquidity: $231K	—	100% April 7 @ $56K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $29K Liquidity: $27K	—	99% April 9 @ $56K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $22K	99% April 10 @ $56K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $20K	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price

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