BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$76,000

NEUTRAL

49.6% up

Last update: 05:22 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

May 27

$76K

May 28

$76K

30%

May 29

$76K

36%

May 30

$76K

37%

May 31

$76K

38%

June 1

$76K

39%

June 2

$76K

40%

June 3

$76K

42%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	May 27	May 28	May 29	May 30	May 31	Jun 1	Jun 2	Jun 3
$88K	+15.8%	1%	0% May 27 @ $88K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $37K Liquidity: $336K	0% May 28 @ $88K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $28K Liquidity: $43K	—	—	—	0% June 1 @ $88K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $6 Liquidity: $18K	—	—
$86K	+13.2%	1%	0% May 27 @ $86K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $71K Liquidity: $298K	0% May 28 @ $86K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $26K Liquidity: $44K	0% May 29 @ $86K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $45K Liquidity: $60K	0% May 30 @ $86K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $71K Liquidity: $28K	0% May 31 @ $86K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $42K	1% June 1 @ $86K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $17 Liquidity: $12K	0% June 2 @ $86K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $428 Liquidity: $13K	1% June 3 @ $86K Bid: — Ask: 2% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$84K	+10.5%	1%	0% May 27 @ $84K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $74K Liquidity: $302K	0% May 28 @ $84K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $52K Liquidity: $48K	0% May 29 @ $84K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $30K	0% May 30 @ $84K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $33K Liquidity: $31K	1% May 31 @ $84K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $18K	1% June 1 @ $84K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $18K	2% June 2 @ $84K Bid: 0% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.6% Volume: $639 Liquidity: $19K	2% June 3 @ $84K Bid: — Ask: 3% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$82K	+7.9%	1%	0% May 27 @ $82K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $210K Liquidity: $335K	0% May 28 @ $82K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $85K Liquidity: $51K	1% May 29 @ $82K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $936 Liquidity: $21K	1% May 30 @ $82K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $17K	1% May 31 @ $82K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $19K	1% June 1 @ $82K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $21K	2% June 2 @ $82K Bid: 2% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $21K	3% June 3 @ $82K Bid: 1% Ask: 5% Spread: 3.8% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$80K	+5.3%	1%	0% May 27 @ $80K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $321K Liquidity: $344K	0% May 28 @ $80K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $48K Liquidity: $31K	1% May 29 @ $80K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $24K	2% May 30 @ $80K Bid: 2% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $22K	3% May 31 @ $80K Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $29K	6% June 1 @ $80K Bid: 5% Ask: 6% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $26K	7% June 2 @ $80K Bid: 6% Ask: 7% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $23K	8% June 3 @ $80K Bid: 4% Ask: 12% Spread: 8.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$78K	+2.6%	1%	0% May 27 @ $78K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $455K Liquidity: $293K	2% May 28 @ $78K Bid: 2% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $52K Liquidity: $31K	8% May 29 @ $78K Bid: 7% Ask: 8% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $24K	11% May 30 @ $78K Bid: 10% Ask: 11% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $23K	13% May 31 @ $78K Bid: 12% Ask: 14% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $21K	16% June 1 @ $78K Bid: 15% Ask: 17% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $20K	19% June 2 @ $78K Bid: 18% Ask: 19% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $248 Liquidity: $13K	20% June 3 @ $78K Bid: 17% Ask: 22% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$76K	+0.0%	53%	0% May 27 @ $76K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $376K Liquidity: $300K	30% May 28 @ $76K Bid: 29% Ask: 30% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $48K Liquidity: $28K	36% May 29 @ $76K Bid: 35% Ask: 36% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $25K	37% May 30 @ $76K Bid: 36% Ask: 37% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $41K Liquidity: $25K	38% May 31 @ $76K Bid: 37% Ask: 38% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $23K	39% June 1 @ $76K Bid: 38% Ask: 39% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $23K	40% June 2 @ $76K Bid: 39% Ask: 40% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $402 Liquidity: $8K	42% June 3 @ $76K Bid: 38% Ask: 46% Spread: 8.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$74K	-2.6%	98%	100% May 27 @ $74K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $556K Liquidity: $349K	84% May 28 @ $74K Bid: 84% Ask: 84% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $130K Liquidity: $35K	77% May 29 @ $74K Bid: 76% Ask: 78% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $24K	74% May 30 @ $74K Bid: 73% Ask: 74% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $23K Liquidity: $23K	72% May 31 @ $74K Bid: 71% Ask: 72% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $18K	68% June 1 @ $74K Bid: 67% Ask: 69% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $18K	68% June 2 @ $74K Bid: 67% Ask: 69% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $795 Liquidity: $17K	66% June 3 @ $74K Bid: 62% Ask: 70% Spread: 8.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$72K	-5.3%	99%	100% May 27 @ $72K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $344K Liquidity: $294K	99% May 28 @ $72K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $66K Liquidity: $30K	95% May 29 @ $72K Bid: 95% Ask: 95% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $19K Liquidity: $26K	93% May 30 @ $72K Bid: 92% Ask: 93% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $44K Liquidity: $23K	92% May 31 @ $72K Bid: 91% Ask: 92% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $22K	88% June 1 @ $72K Bid: 88% Ask: 89% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $20K	88% June 2 @ $72K Bid: 86% Ask: 89% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K	85% June 3 @ $72K Bid: 81% Ask: 89% Spread: 8.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$70K	-7.9%	99%	100% May 27 @ $70K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $255K Liquidity: $319K	100% May 28 @ $70K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $64K Liquidity: $37K	98% May 29 @ $70K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $20K	98% May 30 @ $70K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $26K Liquidity: $22K	98% May 31 @ $70K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $19K	97% June 1 @ $70K Bid: 95% Ask: 98% Spread: 2.6% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $23K	96% June 2 @ $70K Bid: 96% Ask: 96% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $22K	96% June 3 @ $70K Bid: 94% Ask: 98% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $32 Liquidity: $8K
$68K	-10.5%	99%	100% May 27 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $204K Liquidity: $387K	100% May 28 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $79K Liquidity: $20K	100% May 29 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $22K	99% May 30 @ $68K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $17K	99% May 31 @ $68K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $16K	98% June 1 @ $68K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $17K	99% June 2 @ $68K Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $16K	98% June 3 @ $68K Bid: 97% Ask: 100% Spread: 2.6% Volume: $202 Liquidity: $8K
$66K	-13.2%	99%	—	—	100% May 29 @ $66K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $78K Liquidity: $12K	99% May 30 @ $66K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $18K	99% May 31 @ $66K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $18K	—	98% June 2 @ $66K Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 2.2% Volume: $112 Liquidity: $8K	99% June 3 @ $66K Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $200 Liquidity: $28

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price

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