BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$74,000

BULLISH

57.7% up

Last update: 02:08 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

March 16

$74K

63%

March 17

$74K

55%

March 18

$74K

53%

March 19

$74K

52%

March 20

$74K

52%

March 21

$74K

52%

March 22

$74K

53%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	Mar 16	Mar 17	Mar 18	Mar 19	Mar 20	Mar 21	Mar 22
$82K	+10.8%	1%	—	0% March 17 @ $82K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $124K Liquidity: $24K	—	—	4% March 20 @ $82K Bid: 3% Ask: 4% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	—	6% March 22 @ $82K Bid: 5% Ask: 6% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $18K
$80K	+8.1%	1%	—	1% March 17 @ $80K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $53K Liquidity: $22K	4% March 18 @ $80K Bid: 3% Ask: 4% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $19K	7% March 19 @ $80K Bid: 7% Ask: 7% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $19K	9% March 20 @ $80K Bid: 8% Ask: 9% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $18K	10% March 21 @ $80K Bid: 10% Ask: 11% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	12% March 22 @ $80K Bid: 11% Ask: 13% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $432 Liquidity: $14K
$78K	+5.4%	1%	0% March 16 @ $78K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $1.0M Liquidity: $69K	5% March 17 @ $78K Bid: 5% Ask: 6% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $21K Liquidity: $22K	11% March 18 @ $78K Bid: 10% Ask: 12% Spread: 2.4% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $19K	16% March 19 @ $78K Bid: 15% Ask: 16% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $21K Liquidity: $19K	19% March 20 @ $78K Bid: 17% Ask: 20% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $19K	20% March 21 @ $78K Bid: 18% Ask: 22% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $18K	22% March 22 @ $78K Bid: 20% Ask: 23% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $547 Liquidity: $15K
$76K	+2.7%	1%	3% March 16 @ $76K Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $550K Liquidity: $45K	20% March 17 @ $76K Bid: 19% Ask: 20% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $65K Liquidity: $25K	28% March 18 @ $76K Bid: 27% Ask: 30% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $17K	32% March 19 @ $76K Bid: 30% Ask: 34% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $18K	34% March 20 @ $76K Bid: 32% Ask: 36% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $20K	35% March 21 @ $76K Bid: 33% Ask: 37% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $21K	37% March 22 @ $76K Bid: 36% Ask: 38% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $20K
$74K	+0.0%	53%	63% March 16 @ $74K Bid: 62% Ask: 64% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $417K Liquidity: $33K	55% March 17 @ $74K Bid: 54% Ask: 56% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $82K Liquidity: $21K	53% March 18 @ $74K Bid: 52% Ask: 54% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $19K Liquidity: $20K	52% March 19 @ $74K Bid: 50% Ask: 54% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $29K Liquidity: $21K	52% March 20 @ $74K Bid: 50% Ask: 54% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $20K Liquidity: $19K	52% March 21 @ $74K Bid: 51% Ask: 53% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $20K	53% March 22 @ $74K Bid: 51% Ask: 54% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $636 Liquidity: $17K
$72K	-2.7%	98%	98% March 16 @ $72K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $484K Liquidity: $31K	86% March 17 @ $72K Bid: 85% Ask: 86% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $46K Liquidity: $19K	77% March 18 @ $72K Bid: 76% Ask: 78% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $50K Liquidity: $19K	73% March 19 @ $72K Bid: 71% Ask: 74% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $21K	71% March 20 @ $72K Bid: 69% Ask: 72% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $20K	69% March 21 @ $72K Bid: 68% Ask: 70% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $690 Liquidity: $17K	69% March 22 @ $72K Bid: 68% Ask: 70% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $315 Liquidity: $14K
$70K	-5.4%	99%	100% March 16 @ $70K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $656K Liquidity: $65K	96% March 17 @ $70K Bid: 96% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $59K Liquidity: $23K	92% March 18 @ $70K Bid: 91% Ask: 93% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $25K Liquidity: $20K	88% March 19 @ $70K Bid: 86% Ask: 89% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $19K	85% March 20 @ $70K Bid: 84% Ask: 86% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $18K	83% March 21 @ $70K Bid: 82% Ask: 84% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $19K	82% March 22 @ $70K Bid: 80% Ask: 84% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $948 Liquidity: $16K
$68K	-8.1%	99%	100% March 16 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $551K Liquidity: $108K	99% March 17 @ $68K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $50K Liquidity: $24K	97% March 18 @ $68K Bid: 97% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $21K	94% March 19 @ $68K Bid: 93% Ask: 94% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $22K Liquidity: $20K	93% March 20 @ $68K Bid: 92% Ask: 94% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $19K	92% March 21 @ $68K Bid: 91% Ask: 93% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $20K	90% March 22 @ $68K Bid: 89% Ask: 91% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K
$66K	-10.8%	99%	100% March 16 @ $66K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $489K Liquidity: $182K	100% March 17 @ $66K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $54K Liquidity: $27K	98% March 18 @ $66K Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $19K	98% March 19 @ $66K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $18K	97% March 20 @ $66K Bid: 96% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $19K	95% March 21 @ $66K Bid: 94% Ask: 95% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $23K Liquidity: $19K	94% March 22 @ $66K Bid: 93% Ask: 94% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $21K
$64K	-13.5%	99%	100% March 16 @ $64K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $392K Liquidity: $113K	100% March 17 @ $64K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $214K Liquidity: $50K	100% March 18 @ $64K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $31K Liquidity: $23K	98% March 19 @ $64K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $19K	98% March 20 @ $64K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $19K	97% March 21 @ $64K Bid: 96% Ask: 98% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $21K	97% March 22 @ $64K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $19K
$62K	-16.2%	99%	100% March 16 @ $62K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $174K Liquidity: $68K	100% March 17 @ $62K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $160K Liquidity: $46K	100% March 18 @ $62K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $48K Liquidity: $25K	98% March 19 @ $62K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $28K Liquidity: $20K	99% March 20 @ $62K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $23K Liquidity: $19K	99% March 21 @ $62K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $18K	99% March 22 @ $62K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K
$60K	-18.9%	99%	100% March 16 @ $60K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $345K Liquidity: $65K	—	100% March 18 @ $60K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $167K Liquidity: $29K	100% March 19 @ $60K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $41K Liquidity: $24K	—	99% March 21 @ $60K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $18K	—
$58K	-21.6%	99%	100% March 16 @ $58K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $159K Liquidity: $124K	—	—	—	—	—	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price

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