ETH Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

ETH/USDT

$2,300

BEARISH

47.7% up

Last update: 03:15 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

May 2

$2K

41%

May 3

$2K

45%

May 4

$2K

48%

May 5

$2K

48%

May 6

$2K

49%

May 7

$2K

49%

May 8

$2K

49%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.69%

P(up): 51.8%

n=720

μ: +0.00%

σ: 1.46%

P(up): 56.1%

n=180

μ: +0.04%

σ: 3.11%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of ETH above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (1d/30d)	May 2	May 3	May 4	May 5	May 6	May 7	May 8
$2,800	+21.7%	1%	0% May 2 @ $2,800 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $31K	0% May 3 @ $2,800 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $16K	1% May 4 @ $2,800 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $401 Liquidity: $7K	1% May 5 @ $2,800 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.7% Volume: $260 Liquidity: $7K	1% May 6 @ $2,800 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $7K	1% May 7 @ $2,800 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $140 Liquidity: $6K	5% May 8 @ $2,800 Bid: 1% Ask: 9% Spread: 7.5% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $408
$2,700	+17.4%	1%	0% May 2 @ $2,700 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $21K	0% May 3 @ $2,700 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $13K	1% May 4 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $310 Liquidity: $7K	1% May 5 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.7% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $7K	1% May 6 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.7% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $7K	1% May 7 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $170 Liquidity: $6K	6% May 8 @ $2,700 Bid: 1% Ask: 10% Spread: 9.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $512
$2,600	+13.0%	1%	0% May 2 @ $2,600 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $12K	0% May 3 @ $2,600 Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $12K	1% May 4 @ $2,600 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $360 Liquidity: $7K	1% May 5 @ $2,600 Bid: 0% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.3% Volume: $63 Liquidity: $7K	2% May 6 @ $2,600 Bid: 0% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.5% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $7K	2% May 7 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 4% Spread: 2.5% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $6K	7% May 8 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 12% Spread: 11.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $501
$2,500	+8.7%	1%	0% May 2 @ $2,500 Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $12K	1% May 3 @ $2,500 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $10K	2% May 4 @ $2,500 Bid: 2% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $12K	2% May 5 @ $2,500 Bid: 1% Ask: 4% Spread: 2.7% Volume: $83 Liquidity: $6K	4% May 6 @ $2,500 Bid: 2% Ask: 6% Spread: 3.9% Volume: $305 Liquidity: $6K	6% May 7 @ $2,500 Bid: 3% Ask: 8% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $317 Liquidity: $7K	11% May 8 @ $2,500 Bid: 2% Ask: 20% Spread: 18.0% Volume: $18 Liquidity: $2K
$2,400	+4.3%	14%	1% May 2 @ $2,400 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $39K Liquidity: $13K	2% May 3 @ $2,400 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $13K	8% May 4 @ $2,400 Bid: 6% Ask: 9% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $15K	13% May 5 @ $2,400 Bid: 12% Ask: 14% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K	16% May 6 @ $2,400 Bid: 13% Ask: 18% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $327 Liquidity: $7K	19% May 7 @ $2,400 Bid: 16% Ask: 22% Spread: 6.0% Volume: $241 Liquidity: $7K	24% May 8 @ $2,400 Bid: 14% Ask: 33% Spread: 19.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $2K
$2,300	+0.0%	50%	41% May 2 @ $2,300 Bid: 40% Ask: 41% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $13K	45% May 3 @ $2,300 Bid: 41% Ask: 48% Spread: 7.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $11K	48% May 4 @ $2,300 Bid: 45% Ask: 51% Spread: 6.0% Volume: $283 Liquidity: $7K	48% May 5 @ $2,300 Bid: 45% Ask: 51% Spread: 6.0% Volume: $648 Liquidity: $13K	49% May 6 @ $2,300 Bid: 46% Ask: 51% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $40 Liquidity: $7K	49% May 7 @ $2,300 Bid: 46% Ask: 52% Spread: 6.0% Volume: $23 Liquidity: $7K	49% May 8 @ $2,300 Bid: 39% Ask: 58% Spread: 19.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $2K
$2,200	-4.3%	94%	99% May 2 @ $2,200 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $11K	96% May 3 @ $2,200 Bid: 95% Ask: 98% Spread: 2.9% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $11K	91% May 4 @ $2,200 Bid: 90% Ask: 92% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $858 Liquidity: $11K	87% May 5 @ $2,200 Bid: 84% Ask: 89% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $779 Liquidity: $11K	81% May 6 @ $2,200 Bid: 80% Ask: 82% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $196 Liquidity: $7K	79% May 7 @ $2,200 Bid: 77% Ask: 80% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $124 Liquidity: $7K	77% May 8 @ $2,200 Bid: 67% Ask: 86% Spread: 19.0% Volume: $35 Liquidity: $2K
$2,100	-8.7%	99%	100% May 2 @ $2,100 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $11K	99% May 3 @ $2,100 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $10K	99% May 4 @ $2,100 Bid: 97% Ask: 100% Spread: 2.7% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $10K	97% May 5 @ $2,100 Bid: 95% Ask: 99% Spread: 3.7% Volume: $491 Liquidity: $6K	95% May 6 @ $2,100 Bid: 93% Ask: 97% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $300 Liquidity: $6K	95% May 7 @ $2,100 Bid: 93% Ask: 96% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $57 Liquidity: $8K	96% May 8 @ $2,100 Bid: 92% Ask: 99% Spread: 7.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $2K
$2,000	-13.0%	99%	100% May 2 @ $2,000 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $13K	100% May 3 @ $2,000 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $12K	99% May 4 @ $2,000 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $10K	99% May 5 @ $2,000 Bid: 97% Ask: 100% Spread: 2.7% Volume: $370 Liquidity: $6K	98% May 6 @ $2,000 Bid: 97% Ask: 100% Spread: 3.1% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $10K	97% May 7 @ $2,000 Bid: 96% Ask: 99% Spread: 3.2% Volume: $103 Liquidity: $6K	95% May 8 @ $2,000 Bid: 92% Ask: 99% Spread: 7.2% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $560
$1,900	-17.4%	99%	100% May 2 @ $1,900 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $22K	100% May 3 @ $1,900 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $549 Liquidity: $10K	99% May 4 @ $1,900 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $10K	99% May 5 @ $1,900 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $15 Liquidity: $6K	99% May 6 @ $1,900 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $316 Liquidity: $6K	99% May 7 @ $1,900 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $90 Liquidity: $6K	75% May 8 @ $1,900 Bid: 50% Ask: 99% Spread: 49.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $61
$1,800	-21.7%	99%	—	100% May 3 @ $1,800 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $13K	100% May 4 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $11K	100% May 5 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $744 Liquidity: $11K	99% May 6 @ $1,800 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $407 Liquidity: $7K	99% May 7 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $170 Liquidity: $6K	95% May 8 @ $1,800 Bid: 91% Ask: 99% Spread: 8.3% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $399

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs ETH price

ETH Price

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