ETH Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

ETH/USDT

$2,300

BEARISH

47.1% up

Last update: 10:50 PM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

April 15

$2K

59%

April 16

$2K

56%

April 17

$2K

54%

April 18

$2K

54%

April 19

$2K

53%

April 20

$2K

53%

April 21

$2K

53%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.69%

P(up): 51.8%

n=720

μ: +0.00%

σ: 1.46%

P(up): 56.1%

n=180

μ: +0.04%

σ: 3.11%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of ETH above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (1d/30d)	Apr 15	Apr 16	Apr 17	Apr 18	Apr 19	Apr 20	Apr 21
$2,900	+26.1%	1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	2% April 21 @ $2,900 Bid: 0% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.7% Volume: $156 Liquidity: $7K
$2,800	+21.7%	1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	2% April 21 @ $2,800 Bid: 1% Ask: 4% Spread: 2.9% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$2,700	+17.4%	1%	0% April 15 @ $2,700 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $49K Liquidity: $28K	1% April 16 @ $2,700 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $13K	1% April 17 @ $2,700 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $9K Liquidity: $13K	1% April 18 @ $2,700 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $16K	1% April 19 @ $2,700 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $12K	3% April 20 @ $2,700 Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $12K	4% April 21 @ $2,700 Bid: 2% Ask: 6% Spread: 4.3% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$2,600	+13.0%	1%	1% April 15 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $34K Liquidity: $23K	1% April 16 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $18K	2% April 17 @ $2,600 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $623 Liquidity: $17K	4% April 18 @ $2,600 Bid: 3% Ask: 6% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $268 Liquidity: $12K	5% April 19 @ $2,600 Bid: 4% Ask: 5% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $905 Liquidity: $17K	7% April 20 @ $2,600 Bid: 6% Ask: 7% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $67 Liquidity: $12K	8% April 21 @ $2,600 Bid: 4% Ask: 11% Spread: 7.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $8K
$2,500	+8.7%	1%	1% April 15 @ $2,500 Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $49K Liquidity: $20K	4% April 16 @ $2,500 Bid: 4% Ask: 5% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $17K	8% April 17 @ $2,500 Bid: 6% Ask: 10% Spread: 3.8% Volume: $863 Liquidity: $16K	11% April 18 @ $2,500 Bid: 10% Ask: 13% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $16K	13% April 19 @ $2,500 Bid: 11% Ask: 15% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $651 Liquidity: $17K	15% April 20 @ $2,500 Bid: 14% Ask: 16% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $497 Liquidity: $12K	17% April 21 @ $2,500 Bid: 13% Ask: 20% Spread: 7.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $8K
$2,400	+4.3%	14%	8% April 15 @ $2,400 Bid: 8% Ask: 9% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $47K Liquidity: $18K	17% April 16 @ $2,400 Bid: 17% Ask: 17% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $26K Liquidity: $16K	23% April 17 @ $2,400 Bid: 22% Ask: 24% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $21K Liquidity: $17K	28% April 18 @ $2,400 Bid: 26% Ask: 29% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $791 Liquidity: $18K	30% April 19 @ $2,400 Bid: 28% Ask: 31% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $17K	31% April 20 @ $2,400 Bid: 29% Ask: 33% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $288 Liquidity: $11K	33% April 21 @ $2,400 Bid: 29% Ask: 36% Spread: 7.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $8K
$2,300	+0.0%	50%	59% April 15 @ $2,300 Bid: 58% Ask: 60% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $21K	56% April 16 @ $2,300 Bid: 56% Ask: 57% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $19K	54% April 17 @ $2,300 Bid: 52% Ask: 56% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $19K	54% April 18 @ $2,300 Bid: 52% Ask: 56% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $970 Liquidity: $19K	53% April 19 @ $2,300 Bid: 51% Ask: 55% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	53% April 20 @ $2,300 Bid: 51% Ask: 55% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	53% April 21 @ $2,300 Bid: 49% Ask: 56% Spread: 7.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$2,200	-4.3%	94%	96% April 15 @ $2,200 Bid: 95% Ask: 96% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $22K Liquidity: $18K	90% April 16 @ $2,200 Bid: 90% Ask: 91% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $17K	83% April 17 @ $2,200 Bid: 81% Ask: 85% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $17K	80% April 18 @ $2,200 Bid: 78% Ask: 82% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $17K	78% April 19 @ $2,200 Bid: 77% Ask: 79% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $759 Liquidity: $17K	75% April 20 @ $2,200 Bid: 73% Ask: 77% Spread: 4.0% Volume: $667 Liquidity: $18K	74% April 21 @ $2,200 Bid: 70% Ask: 77% Spread: 7.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$2,100	-8.7%	99%	100% April 15 @ $2,100 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $14K	98% April 16 @ $2,100 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $18K	96% April 17 @ $2,100 Bid: 95% Ask: 96% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $12K	94% April 18 @ $2,100 Bid: 93% Ask: 96% Spread: 3.2% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $11K	92% April 19 @ $2,100 Bid: 91% Ask: 93% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $17K	90% April 20 @ $2,100 Bid: 89% Ask: 90% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $18K	89% April 21 @ $2,100 Bid: 88% Ask: 89% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $12K
$2,000	-13.0%	99%	100% April 15 @ $2,000 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $32K Liquidity: $17K	99% April 16 @ $2,000 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $18K	98% April 17 @ $2,000 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $18K	98% April 18 @ $2,000 Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $17K	97% April 19 @ $2,000 Bid: 97% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $17K	96% April 20 @ $2,000 Bid: 96% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $17K	96% April 21 @ $2,000 Bid: 93% Ask: 98% Spread: 4.6% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$1,900	-17.4%	99%	100% April 15 @ $1,900 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $31K Liquidity: $28K	100% April 16 @ $1,900 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $19K	98% April 17 @ $1,900 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.9% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $17K	99% April 18 @ $1,900 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $17K	99% April 19 @ $1,900 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $16K	99% April 20 @ $1,900 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $17K	98% April 21 @ $1,900 Bid: 96% Ask: 99% Spread: 2.6% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K
$1,800	-21.7%	99%	100% April 15 @ $1,800 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $83K Liquidity: $20K	100% April 16 @ $1,800 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $28K Liquidity: $18K	100% April 17 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $14K	99% April 18 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $703 Liquidity: $13K	99% April 19 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $12K	99% April 20 @ $1,800 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $523 Liquidity: $12K	—
$1,700	-26.1%	99%	100% April 15 @ $1,700 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $34K Liquidity: $21K	100% April 16 @ $1,700 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $186K Liquidity: $25K	100% April 17 @ $1,700 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $113K Liquidity: $15K	99% April 18 @ $1,700 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $14K	100% April 19 @ $1,700 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $12K	99% April 20 @ $1,700 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $552 Liquidity: $12K	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs ETH price

ETH Price

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